Nebius Detailed 2030 Valuation Model!
Incredible 16 AI Data Center Under Development!
Recently, Nebius released its Q4 2025 report, and the results were impressive:
Revenue $228M +547% Y/Y
ARR $1.25B, beating $0.9-1.1B guidance.
2026 ARR target now at $7-9B.
2026 Contracted power guidance of 3GW.
Core AI ADJ EBITDA margin of 24%.
Group ADJ EBITDA positive for the first time.
Most importantly, the company has 16 sites under development!
However, Nebius remains 28% below its October highs, as AI skepticisms and macroeconomic issues weigh on the stock. This is despite the company continuing to execute on a level that many previously didn’t believe was possible.
Thus, after this quarter and seeing the steady exustion from the Nebius Team, I have deicded to create a new 2030 valuation model.
I realised that my previous valuation model was a bit conservative, so I have decided to create a new one.
Furthermore, this new model will be more detailed than the previous:
Capex Estimates
Depreciation Table
Funding Table
Interest Cost
Dilution
Bare Metal/Cloud Split
2030 Target Share Price
Let’s begin.
