Also note that China can only invade Taiwan during certain weather windows, there would be at least a 12-18 hour warning (unless it happens during a "blockade exercise") as the ships have to cross the straits, nobody knows how much of a fight the average Taiwanese might actually put up (so there is the risk of miscalculation) - much of the elite probably have foreign citizenships, etc etc - lots of unknowns.... However, I've been to Kinmen (impossible to defend) + Matsu Islands/Penghu (also potentially hard to defend) - China could try grabbing those along with Turtle and Green Islands...
“Nobody knows if the average Taiwanese would fight”.
I think the consensus in the US and EU was that Ukrainian’s wouldn’t fight their “Russian Brothers”. I find it very unlikely that Taiwan wouldn’t resist as ferociously as the Ukrainians.
The problem is that the Russian speakers or ethnic Russians in Ukraine are concentrated in the East/South wheras with the Taiwanese, you don't know who might be pro-China - unless you know how they vote or look at which political party wins a particular area + most people will try to stay neutral... and then pick the side that's clearly winning...
I linked to your post in my Monday links roundup: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-may-12-2025
Also note that China can only invade Taiwan during certain weather windows, there would be at least a 12-18 hour warning (unless it happens during a "blockade exercise") as the ships have to cross the straits, nobody knows how much of a fight the average Taiwanese might actually put up (so there is the risk of miscalculation) - much of the elite probably have foreign citizenships, etc etc - lots of unknowns.... However, I've been to Kinmen (impossible to defend) + Matsu Islands/Penghu (also potentially hard to defend) - China could try grabbing those along with Turtle and Green Islands...
Cool, thanks for sharing it.
“Nobody knows if the average Taiwanese would fight”.
I think the consensus in the US and EU was that Ukrainian’s wouldn’t fight their “Russian Brothers”. I find it very unlikely that Taiwan wouldn’t resist as ferociously as the Ukrainians.
The problem is that the Russian speakers or ethnic Russians in Ukraine are concentrated in the East/South wheras with the Taiwanese, you don't know who might be pro-China - unless you know how they vote or look at which political party wins a particular area + most people will try to stay neutral... and then pick the side that's clearly winning...