3 Comments
User's avatar
Emerging Market Skeptic's avatar

I linked to your post in my Monday links roundup: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-may-12-2025

Also note that China can only invade Taiwan during certain weather windows, there would be at least a 12-18 hour warning (unless it happens during a "blockade exercise") as the ships have to cross the straits, nobody knows how much of a fight the average Taiwanese might actually put up (so there is the risk of miscalculation) - much of the elite probably have foreign citizenships, etc etc - lots of unknowns.... However, I've been to Kinmen (impossible to defend) + Matsu Islands/Penghu (also potentially hard to defend) - China could try grabbing those along with Turtle and Green Islands...

Expand full comment
Ray Myers's avatar

Cool, thanks for sharing it.

“Nobody knows if the average Taiwanese would fight”.

I think the consensus in the US and EU was that Ukrainian’s wouldn’t fight their “Russian Brothers”. I find it very unlikely that Taiwan wouldn’t resist as ferociously as the Ukrainians.

Expand full comment
Emerging Market Skeptic's avatar

The problem is that the Russian speakers or ethnic Russians in Ukraine are concentrated in the East/South wheras with the Taiwanese, you don't know who might be pro-China - unless you know how they vote or look at which political party wins a particular area + most people will try to stay neutral... and then pick the side that's clearly winning...

Expand full comment