Continuing to increase my holding in Diageo. I think it could still fall further, but I also like the Accelerate strategy and am slightly encouraged by the last couple of halves - looks like the market MIGHT be stabilising, but very early days, we might not be done yet.
I also think, at current levels, the stock is pricing in around 4% - 5% long-term revenue growth. This is around historical averages, but this also implies continual increases in the unit price, as volumes are in long-term decline, and has clearly not been achieved recently. I think there is still some optimism in the current price.
There is a long-term volume decline, but I think their RTD portfolio will outperform expectations. Jack&Coke is flying off the shelves. I think Captain Morgan Pepsi could do something similar.
I would say the problem for most of these is either their market is shrinking dramatically (Lulu LVMH diageo) or they have absolutely no moat (PayPal etc)
Love the way this is articulated. Your post covers most of the co's that have a strong chance of turning around. What are your thoughts on $SNAP?
Snap is terribly mismanaged by Spiegel. I wouldn't touch it while he is still there. It could have become a $500B company with competent management.
Great article. 👍
Global-e looks interesting for me.
For me too, might have to write a Deep Dive on them
Continuing to increase my holding in Diageo. I think it could still fall further, but I also like the Accelerate strategy and am slightly encouraged by the last couple of halves - looks like the market MIGHT be stabilising, but very early days, we might not be done yet.
I also think, at current levels, the stock is pricing in around 4% - 5% long-term revenue growth. This is around historical averages, but this also implies continual increases in the unit price, as volumes are in long-term decline, and has clearly not been achieved recently. I think there is still some optimism in the current price.
There is a long-term volume decline, but I think their RTD portfolio will outperform expectations. Jack&Coke is flying off the shelves. I think Captain Morgan Pepsi could do something similar.
Don't forget the blackberry flavoured whiskies - both houses (Diageo and Brown Forman) have one
Great list. I would like to own LULU but just can't get myself to do it. I've been adding CMG under $40. A fallen burrito angel.
CMG still trades for 35 P/E, with only 3% sales growth in Q2 2025. I think there is more to fall.
I would say the problem for most of these is either their market is shrinking dramatically (Lulu LVMH diageo) or they have absolutely no moat (PayPal etc)