Ray, you are missing too many things here. You need deeper analysis of the competition, the Koreans are going to smash them in 2-3 years. This is one company that I absolutely know will be lower in 3-4 years as the current demand is unsustainable and the competition is catching up. Is it a co incidence that Western Digital are unloading? No way they know it’s the top they used to own them!
Lastly again not enough analysis in the supply chain. They manufacture in Japan, ship to Shenzen China for Packaging and then onto Taiwan for final assembly. What could possibly go wrong with that supply chain in the next 2-3 years?
1) There is indeed a lot of competition from Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, but they have focused too much on HBM. Let's see if they can ramp up NAND production to meet the demand.
2) Western Digital unloading makes sense because they have made huge gains since the split, in just a year. They kept the 20% stake exactly because of this, to sell relatively quickly and profit, not to be a long-term shareholder. I don't think them selling is a strong indicator of Sandisk's future potential.
3) I agree that if the China/Taiwan axis is a problem. But if China invades, then the whole semiconductor industry will be severely affected. I didn't see the point in mentioning that, as it is a rather extreme scenario that is talked about often.
4) The CEO says "that this time is different" because of strong long term demand trends and that they are negotiating long term supply agreements with customers for steady prices and a more predictable ROI. I am not saying that he is 100% right, but that is the Investment Thesis.
Ray, you are missing too many things here. You need deeper analysis of the competition, the Koreans are going to smash them in 2-3 years. This is one company that I absolutely know will be lower in 3-4 years as the current demand is unsustainable and the competition is catching up. Is it a co incidence that Western Digital are unloading? No way they know it’s the top they used to own them!
Lastly again not enough analysis in the supply chain. They manufacture in Japan, ship to Shenzen China for Packaging and then onto Taiwan for final assembly. What could possibly go wrong with that supply chain in the next 2-3 years?
All good points, Sam.
1) There is indeed a lot of competition from Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, but they have focused too much on HBM. Let's see if they can ramp up NAND production to meet the demand.
2) Western Digital unloading makes sense because they have made huge gains since the split, in just a year. They kept the 20% stake exactly because of this, to sell relatively quickly and profit, not to be a long-term shareholder. I don't think them selling is a strong indicator of Sandisk's future potential.
3) I agree that if the China/Taiwan axis is a problem. But if China invades, then the whole semiconductor industry will be severely affected. I didn't see the point in mentioning that, as it is a rather extreme scenario that is talked about often.
4) The CEO says "that this time is different" because of strong long term demand trends and that they are negotiating long term supply agreements with customers for steady prices and a more predictable ROI. I am not saying that he is 100% right, but that is the Investment Thesis.